Manny Pacquiao vs. Juan Manuel Marquez IV Odds aren't Shifting

Manny Pacquiao will be the favorite heading into his Dec. 8 showdown against Juan Manuel Marquez. There are no questions about that. Unless the Filipino champ loses an arm or something, there is no way he doesn’t come into that bout as the guy who is expected to win. The question at this point, really, is just how much folks are expecting him to win.

Heading into their third fight last November, the lines looked a little something like this: Pacquiao -700 and Marquez +500. Fans were expecting a blowout victory – mostly due to the latter’s age and the former’s dominance over his opposition up to that point. Clearly things didn’t go according to plan, though. Pacquiao ultimately won, but he did so in very unconvincing fashion.

This time, odds makers are still giving Pacquiao the edge, but they’re doing so by a lesser margin. According to bookermaker.net, Pacquiao is -350 and Marquez is +280 heading into this one. That’s a pretty far cry from the -700 and +500 they were at, respectively, on their last go-round. Now, obviously the heart that Marquez showed in the pair’s third match has a lot do with that, but Pacquiao’s inability to put Timothy Bradley away this past June likely played a part, too.

About a month ago, ABS-CBN reported that Pacquiao was -400 heading into the fight, and Marquez was +300. Different odds makers will have marginally different lines, obviously, but the closeness of those numbers to the ones from bookmaker.net indicates that everyone is more or less on the same page regarding this match.

Recent reports out the Filipino champ’s camp indicate that he is training harder than ever right now. Insiders are stressing that their guy is well aware of what’s on the line in this one. And the fact that, for the first time in a long time, he actually has to prove himself is no doubt providing Pacquiao with some legitimate motivation.
Still, all that said, odds makers aren’t buying into the hype just yet. They believe this match will be close. (Sort of.) It will be interesting to see how the numbers shift as we creep closer and closer to the big day.


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Manny Pacquiao Wants to Make a Statement Against Juan Manuel Marquez

Manny Pacquiao went into his third fight against Juan Manuel Marquez with a lot of distractions hanging over his head. He admitted this much after the fact. And those distractions, ultimately, led to a performance that many people felt wasn’t as good as the one Marquez put forth. Pacquiao won the match officially, however, in the hearts and minds of a lot of viewers at home he wasn’t the rightful winner.

The Filipino champ vows to do better this time around.

Over the past few weeks, both Pacquiao and Freddie Roach have made it clear that they would be training harder than ever for Dec. 8’s showdown against Marquez. On top of that, both have indicated that they won’t simply leave this one to the judges – this match will end via knockout.

Now, it’s worth noting at this point: no Pacquiao versus Marquez match has ever ended with a knockout. Furthermore, Pacquiao hasn’t recorded a knockout in nearly three years. If he really plans to end the bout the way he says he plans to end it, his dedication to training has to reflect that desire.

So, has the Filipino champ been working out more intensely as of late? Yes, apparently. Check out this recent report by the good folks over at Boxing Scene:

"Fighter of the Decade" Manny Pacquiao hammered his sparring partner, welterweight  Anthony "Rocky" Marcial, in his first session and forced Marcial to quit.

Pacquiao's friend since his amateur days in General Santos City told BoxingScene.com/Manila Standard that Pacquiao has been training diligently every day, joging in the mornings and working out at his gym in the afternoons with childhood friend Restituto "Buboy" Fernandez, and also playing basketball to help improve his physical condition.

Golingan said Pacquiao appears to be "very serious and is training hard and looks good" in preparation for his fourth fight with Juan Manuel Marquez…

Look, making a guy give up during a training session doesn’t mean a whole lot. Nobody is trying to blow this out of proportion.

That said, it does show that Pacquiao isn’t as washed up as some seem to think he is. And it also shows that he is really dedicating himself into handling business against Marquez. Will he record a knockout on Dec. 8? It’s tough to say. Marquez is really crafty and, if Pacquiao couldn’t knockout Timothy Bradley, it’s tough to see him faring any better against a superior fighter. But if he trains hard and can actually manhandle Marquez throughout the entire match, he won't need a knockout.

Regardless of what ultimately happens, this is definitely the right way to kickoff fight prep.

Does Nonito Donaire Want to Fight Manny Pacquiao?

Manny Pacquiao and Nonito Donaire are generally considered to be among the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. While their careers are obviously on different trajectories right now, the success that both have experienced over the past few years coupled with the love they get from their Filipino fans has led many to wonder: could these two fight at some point?

Donaire is coming off a dominant victory over Toshiaki Nishioka; Pacquiao, once he squares off against Juan Manuel Marquez this November, doesn’t have any specific opponents in mind for the coming year. Is this potential Dream Match doable?

Of course not.

During a recent interview, Donaire explained why the prospect of him and Pacquiao squaring off is ludicrous.

"He's like five divisions higher than I am," Donaire said (via ABS-CBN).

Beyond the physical disqualifier, there is also a certain respect factor at work.

"As a fighter, we are not afraid to fight anyone. But we are friends, and it has to be mutually agreed. But we don't seek for it, and it's not in my head," Donaire emphasized.

Frankly, The Filipino Flash is just honored to be a mentioned in the same breath.

"That's another step to where I want to be. You're being compared to one of the top guys, one of the top guys in history," he said. "That means I'm doing something good.”

Fantasy dream matches aside, a lot of people would love to see Donaire take on Jorge Arce next. It remains to be seen if the match will actually get put together, though. As far as Pacquiao goes, once he’s done with Marquez – Floyd Mayweather Jr. is the obvious choice. If that doesn’t work out, then Brandon Rios figures to be a reliable fallback option.


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Video: Danny Garcia Knocks Out Erik Morales with a Brutal Left Hook

After his two failed drug tests, a lot of people felt as though Erik Morales shouldn’t have even been allowed to participate in Saturday night’s bout versus Danny Garcia. With one left hook in the fourth round, however, Garcia changed the narrative surrounding this fight entirely.

Maybe Morales was on something in the lead-up to this thing. Maybe he wasn’t. Either way, no amount of weight loss drugs in the world could have changed what was going to happen.

Garcia was simply better.



Morales, 36, says that he will fight one more time in Tijuana before finally calling it quits. Based on what we saw last night, it may be wiser for the former champ to cut his losses and retire now before his reputation takes any more hits.

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Jim Harbaugh Costs 49ers-Seahawks Gamblers with Safety Decision

Thursday night’s showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks was not the most interesting of games.

You essentially had two really strong defenses, two really legitimate running attacks, and two very unimpressive quarterbacks trying to outdo one another for midseason NFC West glory. That’s it. At the end of the day, that’s all this game was about. And so, with that in mind, it probably shouldn’t come as much of a shock that the most intriguing aspect of this outing didn’t pertain to its lasting impact on either team; rather, the most intriguing aspect of this outing pertained directly to its impact on gamblers.

The Niners came into Thursday night as seven to eight point favorites. (They were playing at home.) In the fourth quarter with less than a minute remaining, they were up 13-6 and preparing to defend against a fourth-and-17 that the Seahawks were trying to convert from inside their own five-yard line. Russell Wilson was ultimately able to make a lengthy pass to Ben Obamanu. However, the officials called a chop block on Seattle – which nullified the pass completion and gave San Francisco a 15-6 lead by virtue of a 2-point safety. (Chop blocks result in 15-yard penalties and the Seahawks were on their own four-yard line.)

Or so we thought.

Fearing an onside kick recovery by the Seahawks, Niners coach Jim Harbaugh turned down the safety. The end result? A seven point win for San Fran – and a very bad night for everyone who had Niners -7.5 and -8.

The fallout wasn’t pretty.

Via Huffington Post:

“Although it was at San Francisco -7 for a good portion of the week, most bets we took were at -7.5 and -8,” Dave Mason of offshore sportsbook BetOnline.com told the National Football Post Thursday night. “So Harbaugh was definitely looking out for the house by taking points off the board, considering about 65% of the action we booked was on the 49ers.”

Via Deadspin:

R.J. Bell of Pregame.com breaks down who got hosed, and for how much:

49ers -7 had money refunded (but would have won with the safety)
49ers -7.5 or -8 lost (but would have won with the safety)
Seahawks +7 had money refunded (but would have lost with the safety)
Seahawks +7.5 or +8 won (but would have lost with the safety)

Overall, it's safe to say that coach Harbaugh's unconventional decision resulted in a $75 million dollar swing worldwide with the bettors overall losing that amount (due to 65% of the action being on the 49ers) and the bookies overall winning that amount.

Still, gamblers should probably count their blessings. The last time a Seahawks game screwed over bettors, it caused anywhere from $100 million to $1 billion in worldwide bets to shift.

(Kudos Huffington Post, Deadspin)

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NBA Rumors: Can the Lakers Afford All These Stars?

The Los Angeles Lakers brought in two future Hall of Famers this summer. They already had two on their roster. That sort of talent doesn’t come cheap. Heading into the 2012-13 season, this squad’s payroll stands at about 101 million – highest in the NBA. Presuming Dwight Howard re-signs next summer, that figure will balloon up even more.

Obviously the Lakers are fortunate enough to play in the second biggest media market in America, and clearly they carry a certain notable reputation that other franchises in the league don’t have. That said, even they can’t afford to keep spending money like this, right?

Wrong.

In an interesting new report, the Los Angeles Times points out that the Lakers’ financial situation is actually a lot better than you would think – despite all their expenses. Even though they will pay an exorbitant amount in luxury taxes on top of their salaries, and even though they need to pay almost $50 million revenue-sharing dues, they are still great position thanks to their new TV deal.

The team makes up to $90 million in annual ticket sales and is starting the first year of a TV deal with Time Warner Cable that pays them $120 million more this season.

…

The Lakers received about $60 million total in local broadcasting rights from KCAL and FS West last season, a number that doubled in the first year of the Time Warner deal. Annual raises bring the deal to about $3.6 billion through 20 years, and the Lakers hold an option to extend to 25 years, potentially pushing the total over $5 billion.

Yes, the same TV deal that is currently preventing Lakers fans from watching preseason games. But that’s the tradeoff. For the right to bring in Dwight Howard and Steve Nash to play with Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant, and for the right to possibly get LeBron James in 2014, fans need to put up with the inconvenient delays that come standard during cable TV wars.

All things considered, it’s a pretty fair swap.

So, to answer the original question: no, despite all of their ridiculous expenditures, the Lakers are not in bad financial position. They’re still in great position, and likely will be for a long, long time.

(Kudos Los Angeles Times)

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Manny Pacquiao vs. Brandon Rios Continues to Pick Up Steam

Who will Manny Pacquiao fight in 2013? That seems to be the main question dominating any and all discussions involving Top Rank, the Filipino champ himself, and the general makeup of boxing's top pound-for-pound rankings.

Be it because we have already seen this dance before, or because people are just generally more intrigued by the unknown, it doesn’t seem like there is really all that much discussion going on right now about Pacquiao actual next bout. You know, that Dec. 8 showdown versus Juan Manuel Marquez that has generated next to no buzz over the past few weeks.


Obviously the preferred opponent for Pacquiao’s early 2013 fight would be Floyd Mayweather Jr. It goes without saying that, hands down, a Pacquiao-Mayweather showdown would be the one and only match-up that all boxing fans (casual and diehard) could agree they would happily drop pay-per-view dough on. But what if it doesn’t happen? This is a showdown that has been discussed for three years – yet it’s never actually materialized.

Is there a Plan B?

Yes, apparently.

Recently, Bob Arum came out and said that the winner of last Saturday’s Brandon Rios versus Mike Alvarado fight might get a shot at Pacquiao. Rios ultimately won that match, and he did so in dominating fashion. Afterward, both he and his camp did interviews indicating that they would love to square off against the Filipino champ in 2013.

The idea has picked up a lot of steam over the past few days. It has become so popular, in fact, that HBO announcer Larry Merchant actually took the time to weigh in on it during a recent interview with The Examiner’s Chris Robinson.

“A younger brawler against Pacquiao I think would be a fight everybody in boxing and people beyond boxing would like to see,” Merchant said.

“I’ve been saying for a while, that Pacquiao needs a fighter who will come to him and fight him.” Merchant continued. “But it’s also the kind of young, tough guy who you might not want to see in your face all night long. You don’t get the answers until you see the fight, I’ll just leave it at that. I think he’d be a great opponent for Pacquiao and vice versa.”

He might be right. Initially, the idea of Pacquiao-Rios in 2013 wasn’t especially tantalizing. Particularly when compared to the alternative. However, after seeing the way Rios performed last Saturday – it’s hard to say that he hasn’t at least earned consideration. He’s definitely a more interesting fighter than Timothy Bradley.

Obviously Pacquiao-Mayweather is what everyone wants to see. But if by some off chance it doesn’t happen – Pacquiao-Rios could end up being a really solid alternative.

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